一大片布满太阳能电池板的场地的Arial字体

OPE体育的詹金斯告诉立法者,绿色电网的目标对新泽西州来说是可行的

2022年3月23日11点21分.m.

A drone view of the solar fields on Princeton's Lake Campus Development in West Windsor, New Jersey.

New Jersey’s goal of providing residents electricity without generating carbon pollution by 2050 is attainable and affordable, 但可能涉及大量使用州外电力, OPE体育教授杰西·詹金斯 告诉了州立法委员会 周一.

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杰西·詹金斯, assistant professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, 领导OPE体育官网零实验室, 零碳能源系统研究与优化实验室, 哪一项研究能加速改进决策, 向净零碳能源系统的廉价和有效过渡.

詹金斯, assistant professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy the Environment, 领导一组研究人员 建模途径 to meet New Jersey’s stated policy goal of providing 75% of power by renewables and achieving a 100% carbon-free power supply by 2050. 上周一,他描述了实现这一目标的选项,该选项在2018年加州政府的一项行政命令中概述. 菲尔·墨菲是新泽西州参议院环境与能源委员会的成员.

“这项研究的目的是提供一个独立的, 详细评估关键技术和政策选项和选择, 以及它们对OPE体育规划100%清洁电力之路的影响,詹金斯说:“.

詹金斯’ team of energy researchers at the Princeton ZERO Lab modeled three broad scenarios for the state and found varied results:

  • A 基于2020年底现有政策的一切照常的情景, 这是否排除了到2050年实现无碳电力供应的目标. 在这个场景中, electricity supply costs would fall by 19% but a carbon-free power supply would not be achieved.
  • scenario that modeled outcomes based on policies that have been committed to but not yet implemented, 包括到2050年75%的可再生电力和100%无碳电力的目标, 以及该州现有的目标,到那时全州范围内减少80%的温室气体排放. The study found that the most affordable way to meet these goals was for New Jersey to buy a significant amount of clean energy from out of state.
  • A scenario in which New Jersey decarbonizes its grid primarily by building in-state clean energy resources, 比如开发海上风力发电场和太阳能项目. 这种情况的结果将允许国家实现其目标, 但对新泽西的电力客户来说,成本会更高.

The findings show that meeting New Jersey’s goal of procuring a carbon-free electric supply by mid-century is possible, even as peak electric demand is anticipated to grow by up to 85% from rapid building and vehicle electrification.

“首先也是最重要的, a transition to 100% carbon-free electricity is feasible while maintaining necessary reliability and with reductions in bulk electricity supply costs,詹金斯说:“.

詹金斯 told legislators that the lowest-cost option would take advant年龄 of New Jersey’s membership in a multi-state electric grid called the PJM Interconnect. 网格, 由许多公用事业和电力生产商组成, 延伸穿过宾夕法尼亚州, 新泽西州和马里兰州(最初的“P, J和M”)到北卡罗来纳州, 远至肯塔基州西部的部分地区, 密歇根, 印第安纳州和伊利诺斯州. 在最便宜的选项下, New Jersey would save money by importing solar and wind electricity from states with lower land costs and better renewable resource quality, 比如北卡罗来纳州的太阳能或印第安纳州的风能. 这个策略代表了国家最便宜的路径, 只要其他州不同样积极地对其电力部门进行脱碳. 在这种情况下, greater demand for renewables across the region would drive up the cost of imports for New Jersey, 促使人们依赖更昂贵的州内资源.

The option of increasing electricity imports would also reverse New Jersey’s traditional reliance on in-state energy. 目前仅为状态 进口约10% 它的力量. 在最低成本的选项下, 到2050年,这一比例将增加到65%左右, 徐教授说, 他是这项研究的首席研究员,也是詹金斯ZERO实验室的博士后研究学者, 谁通过电子邮件添加了他的评论.

如果新泽西选择在州内生产更多的电力, it could scale up projects such as offshore wind and smaller-scale distributed solar installations, 在当前的政策下,哪些是州的优先事项. 但徐指出,这将意味着该州纳税人的成本增加.

“We find that the lowest-cost pathway to a carbon-free electricity supply departs in important ways from New Jersey’s current approach to policy, 哪些优先考虑州内和分布式能源,詹金斯说:“.

便宜的选项会 include keeping the state’s three commercial nuclear reactors open beyond 2030 and deploying large, “公用事业规模”太阳能项目,由于规模经济,价格较低. The existing nuclear power plants also provide a hedge against higher costs for imported renewable electricity if other states across the region pursue decarbonization goals, 或者天然气价格或可再生能源建设成本高于预期.

詹金斯 said policymakers need to evaluate the benefits or drawbacks of the different ways to source power because their implications extend far beyond electricity supply costs to include effects on the economy and labor force, 环境, 以及生活质量.

虽然不受环保人士的青睐,而且很难选址, 在所有情况下,建造天然气工厂都是一种有用的策略. 而新的天然气工厂引发了人们对污染和额外温室气体的担忧, 詹金斯 explained that increasing generating capacity would keep the cost of power down and help meet growing peak demands from electric vehicles and the adoption of electric heat pumps to efficiently heat water and buildings. 詹金斯说,总发电量来自天然气和相关的空气污染, 温室气体的排放, 随着时间的推移,与天然气开采相关的影响将稳步下降, 特别是如果该州现有的核电站得以维持的话. 在两种为实现脱碳目标而开发的方案中, 这些工厂需要使用零碳燃料, 比如2050年可持续生产的氢或氨, 在这种情况下,它们只有在风能和太阳能基本上都不可用的情况下才会运转.

议员们说,负担能力很重要, 他们将不得不权衡这与进口更多电力的想法. 他们询问詹金斯如何使电动汽车充电基础设施更容易获得, 对此,他回答说,充电基础设施方面的额外公共投资很重要, 正如早先在委员会会议上提出的决议.

听证会结束后,奥巴马说. 鲍勃·史密斯, 该委员会主席, 他表示,他将接受詹金斯的提议,为其他场景建模,并进一步讨论.

“OPE体育会把你设为快速拨号,”史密斯说, 谁代表萨默塞特和米德尔塞克斯郡的部分地区.

有关这项新研究的更多信息,请下载New Jersey’s Pathway to a 100% Carbon-Free Electricity Supply: Policy and Technology Choices Through 2050."

这项新研究在同行评议之前作为工作文件发表,供公众传播. 该研究小组正在准备基于该报告的其他出版物,以供同行评审, 可能会被修改.

Additional authors of “New Jersey’s Pathway to a 100% Carbon-Free Electricity Supply: Policy and Technology Choices Through 2050” include former Princeton postdoctoral researcher Chuan Zhang, 现为北京大学助理教授, 以及OPE体育的副研究员尼哈·帕坦卡尔.

This project was supported by Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) through Princeton E-ffiliates Partnership.